I think the world needs a little more education regarding our inherent, implicit, hidden biases. We, absolutely none of us, not even the greatest scientific minds, not even the most extreme physicist can act without bias. It’s part of who we are.
I watched this video, with my feet up, while recovering from my recent hike up Korea’s highest rock. It’s pretty light but makes a good point - almost all of us act irrationally, especially at casinos. We think we are making sound decisions but behind the curtain, other forces are at work. And behind our own curtain, even stronger forces are at work, making us irrational in our actions.
We do need a little awareness of our own propensity for bias and “magical thinking”. What each of us can do is keep a cheat sheet there in front of us, and maybe some braking will occur in our actions or our declarations and beliefs, as we note the shadow that is our bias, dimming the light shining ahead. Especially in this day and age of the electronic public forum, we do need some numerical literacy to add to our media literacy - we need to sensitize our shit detectors, and the best way to do that is to be aware of the bias in everything.
For example;
It's hard sometimes to have a real, factual, probing conversation with people, friends even, these days especially. My conversations usually go like this ...
Me: Hey. I'm not sure I agree.
Him: Then answer this question. What’s green, hangs on the wall, and whistles?
Me: I give up.
Him: A herring.
Me: But a herring isn’t green.
Him: So you can paint it green.
Me: But a herring doesn’t hang on the wall.
Him: Put a nail through it, it hangs on the wall.
Me: But a herring doesn’t whistle!
Him: So? It doesn’t whistle.
Me: I turn and walk away.
Most people think bias is a simple thing, Unidimensional. You aren’t following the math or adding up the numbers right. You are being subjective. But it is more complex than that. Just like there are over a dozen of types of averages (numbers that represent a group of numbers) , not just the one we are taught exists (add up the total, divide by the total number), there too, are many types of bias. Bias is not just about statistical accuracy. It’s complex, there are many variations and variables in any conclusion. And again, we won’t ever eliminate bias but we can control its destructive impact and also add some nice, cautionary notes to any conclusion.
I am not a math person and surprisingly, bias and even statistics itself is not purely about mathematical skill. No, far from that. I did poorly in math at school but was incredibly strong in statistics, even at one time teaching a graduate course in statistics and research methods. I think the key is to have a critical attitude and also a reflective demeanor where you can also look at your own binoculars and see what kind of poor refraction there is therein.
Anyway, I’m not going to bore you with tepid epistemology and pontifications about data and numbers. No. Let me just lay out off the top of my head, some of the main forms of bias (many overlapping). A shortlist. I’ll give a practical example for each that might make its definition clearer. I will use poker, one of my beautiful vices - will write more about that in the coming months.
“The eye sees only what the mind is prepared to comprehend.”
― Robertson Davies, Tempest-Tost
Forms Of Bias
Dunning Krueger Effect - We reduce complex ideas to simple ones and believe we understand it. We think we are smarter than we actually are. Example. You have A 6 spades. One guy raises pre-flop. You decide to go all in. You say to yourself, “Hey, the odds are 50/50. Either I win or I lose.
Spotlight Effect – We think we are more important than we are. The IKEA effect. Too much value is given on things we have done and not giving credit or discounting the smart ideas, work, contributions of others, or pure random chance in operation. Example: I raised, he 3 bet me. I folded. Saved some money! (no acknowledging his possibility of a bluff, stealing my money).
Endowment Effect – We think what we possess is worth more than it is. Example: AK pre-flop. I call a large raise. Flop Q 9 10. I call another large bet. Turn is 7. I call another large bet. River - K. I call another large bet. Lose to a J 2.
“It is useless to attempt to reason a man out of a thing he was never reasoned into.” ― Jonathan Swift
Confirmation Bias - You see a select set of information and believe it is true for a wider set. You remember the hits and forget the misses. Survivorship Bias. Example: You have not hit the flop for a long time. So you must be due! You throw your money in. You lose, bullets!
Authenticity Trap - You believe that only things made, done or from a certain type of person can be the best. Example. Guy at the table who has never played before. He calls your A J, raise pre-flop. The flop is J 6 3. You bet, the guy raises. You fire all in. You lose on the river, the know-nothing green rookie hits his flush.
Anthropocentrism - Only mankind has X qualities is important. Ex. You play against a chicken. The chicken can bet (peck), check (scratch) or fold ( do nothing). You lose your $100 buy-in in the first 10 minutes.
Ethnocentrism / Cultural Bias / Implicit Bias / Group Think (in-group bias). Example. You raise. You are called by an Asian. Of course, all Asians play loose. You hit top card. You bet 6x. Call. Turn, you bet 10x the pot. Call. River. Nothing special. You check. He goes all in. You have top card J kicker. You call. He outkicks you. You still say, stupid Asian. He says, “Stupid X”.
Magical Thinking – good things will happen if you do X. Example: You always wear your Yankees cap to X casino. So you do tonight. It’s a 100% sure thing, every time you wear it, you’ve won. You lose more money that night than the last 20 nights. Yet, next time you go out to that casino, you again wear that hat.
Information Bias – more information = better understanding and better decisions. Example: You subscribe to all the Youtube channels, you watch them and listen to endless podcasts about poker strategy and have memorized every cheat sheet. Yet you still lose constantly to the guy rubbing his under stuff and drinking endless Jagermeister.
Selection Bias – We notice things more when they are related to our own world and set of assumptions about the world. Example: The guy at the table looks like a pro. He even wears GG gear. Must be good. Every time he raises, you fold.
Availability Bias – We use the info. at hand or can quickly recall evaluating. Anchoring bias / Availability Heuristic – rely on the first piece of info. Example: You just sit at the table. Guy beside you tells you about some previous hands. Always pairs on the board and someone has it. You get QQ. Flop 66 3. You raise. Player 3 bets strong. You tank but call. 3 on the turn. You check. Player goes all in. You think and think, …. fold. Player shows 77.
Hindsight Bias (the I Knew It All Along Phenomena) – We think of events as predictable after they happen. Monday Night Football coach. Example: You win a big pot. Player folds and you don’t show. Later he asks you what you had that hand. You tell him, boat (everything). He says, “I knew it!”
If you don’t know who the sucker is at the poker table - it is you.
The Self-Reference Effect - People remember and encode experiences and info. differently depending on whether they are part it, involved. The purest form of subjectivism. Related to selection bias. Example: First hand of the night you hit top set QQ and Q on the board. You slow play to maximize your earnings. Player calls. Calls. You lose to a straight. The rest of the night at the table, you fold your set to any raise.
Planning Fallacy - We underestimate the time it will take to complete a task. We can’t say no – so we usually underestimate delivery time. Important considerations when planning. Example. We tell our husband that we’ll only be playing poker ‘til 6 or until we leave the casino up (with money). You win early but don’ leave, it is not 6 yet. Then you lose. So you stay until 11pm but finally break even and can leave. At home, your husband is asleep and won’t talk to you.